Predicting Recidivism Using Survival Models

Our interest in the statistical modeling of data on the timing of recidivism began in the mid 1970s when we were both junior members of the eco­ nomics department at the University of North Carolina. At that time, methods of analyzing qualitative and limited variables were being developed rapidly in the econometric literature, and we became interested in finding a suitable application for these new methods. Data on the timing of recidivism offered unique and interesting statistical challenges, s…